Bihar election: Modi declares victory in India’s first coronavirus vote

On Mar 2, 2021

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Results from the Election Commission of India show that Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its coalition partners have returned to power after a tight race for control of the legislative assembly in Bihar, the country’s third most populous state with more than 100 million people.

“Democracy has once again prevailed in Bihar with the blessings of the people,” Modi tweeted Tuesday local time, as results rolled in from Bihar’s legislative election. “I assure every citizen of Bihar that we will continue to work for the equal development of every region and for every person.”

The BJP and its three coalition partners won 122 out of 243 seats, just enough to secure the coalition a victory in a narrow race that involved three rounds of voting beginning in October. The progressive Rashtriya Janata Dal won 75 seats — one more than BJP, but not enough to secure a victory even with its coalition partners.

Earlier polling indicated that the BJP could be headed for defeat in Bihar, which has been hit hard by measures to control India’s coronavirus outbreak, the worst in the world besides the United States in terms of virus caseload.

Bihar is one of India’s poorest states, and many residents travel outside the state for work. When Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown in March with only four hours notice, many migrant workers from Bihar were left without a job. According to Indian government data, more than 10 million migrant workers returned to their home states — including more than 1.5 million to Bihar.

Unemployment in Bihar rose from 15.4% in March to 46.6% in April, although it dropped back down in recent months as coronavirus restrictions eased. In October, Bihar had 9.8% unemployment, according to official statistics.

Bihar has reported more than 220,000 cases including 1,156 deaths — still a relatively small fraction of India’s 8.5 million cases and 127,000 deaths.

Although the number of daily new coronavirus cases in India has dropped from September when authorities frequently reported more than 90,000 a day, cases are starting to pick up again in the country’s capital New Delhi. Earlier this week, Delhi reported its largest single-day increase of Covid-19 cases, bringing its total to more than 450,000.

What the vote means

Although Bihar’s election was held in the shadow of the country’s unfolding coronavirus crisis, Gilles Verniers, a professor of political science at Ashoka University, in India’s North Haryana state, said it was unclear how much of a role coronavirus had played in how people voted.

Bihar already suffered from high rates of joblessness before Covid-19, but the lockdown and handling of migrant workers had made that worse, he said. Anger and resentment over how the migrant crisis was handled likely cost the BJP some votes. The BJP won 36.8% of the vote in the last election in 2015, but this election only won 29.2%.

Election officers wearing face masks count votes for the Bihar state assembly polls, at a counting centre in Patna, India, on November 10, 2020.

“It seems clear that Covid exacerbated every pre-existing problem … but not to a point where it would topple the government.”

“The belief that the voters have in Modi is that he means well, he can’t do wrong, that he’s the only alternative that exists and that trumps a hard look at the consequences…