«L’Occidente non si illuda, la guerra durerà a lungo»


Stanislaw Zaryn è Segretario di Stato alla Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, vice ministro e capo dei servizi segreti della Polonia. Conosce bene la Russia e, soprattutto, quello che accade dietro le mura del Cremlino. La sua idea è che Putin, contrariamente alle speranze di alcuni osservatori occidentali, è ancora ben saldo al potere. E sulla guerra dice: «Potrebbe durare anni».

Vice ministro, la Polonia è sempre molto informata su quello che accade in Russia. Cosa sta succedendo in queste settimane dietro le mura del Cremlino? Putin è ancora saldo o c’è un fronte interno contro di lui?
«Per quanto riguarda le minacce provenienti da Est, la Polonia mantiene una stretta vigilanza sull’evolversi della situazione. Questo è dovuto non solo a una valutazione dello scenario attuale, ma anche a circostanze geografiche e storiche. La nostra esperienza e le nostre analisi mostrano chiaramente che la Russia, da molti anni, è la principale minaccia alla pace e alla stabilità durature nella nostra parte del mondo. Abbiamo assistito, almeno per parecchi anni, a una nuova ascesa dell’imperialismo russo. È su questo che si basa la politica della Russia, è questo che unisce l’élite di potere al Cremlino. Al momento, non ci sono chiare crepe al Cremlino e le notizie emergenti di tensioni sono difficilmente credibili. I nostri dati dimostrano che il Cremlino è unito attorno alle aspirazioni imperiali, e qualsiasi critica non riguarda la strategia in sé, ma i mezzi per raggiungere gli obiettivi prefissati».

Chi sono gli uomini che vorrebbero prendere il posto dello Zar?
«Naturalmente non si può escludere un colpo di stato ai vertici del governo – questi cambiamenti a volte avvengono. Nel caso delle tirannie, esse sono sanguinose e brutali. Ma ad oggi non c’è alcuna prospettiva reale di cambiamento al Cremlino. Anche se dovesse mai accadere, dobbiamo ricordare una cosa: la Russia è un regime basato su servizi segreti e meccanismi di potere post-sovietici. Spostare le pedine sulla scacchiera politica secondo i dettami dei servizi non cambierà il corso imperiale della politica russa».

Secondo lei le voci sulla presunta malattia di Putin sono reali o è soltanto una speranza dell’Occidente?
«Dei problemi di salute di Putin si vocifera da anni. Alcune di queste notizie potrebbero essere vere, anche solo per la sua età. Tuttavia, questo non è un argomento per guardare al futuro con ingenuo ottimismo nella speranza di un cambiamento in Russia. Basta ricordare la figura di Dmitrij Medvedev: quando era presidente, era considerato in Occidente il volto liberale della Russia e una ventata di speranza, per la “democratizzazione della Russia”. Ora è uno dei più radicali sostenitori della politica aggressiva e imperiale della Russia. Al Cremlino le personalità sono meno importanti dei presupposti sistemici e strategici. E questi rimangono e rimarranno gli stessi: ostili all’Occidente».

Quali saranno le prossime mosse della Russia nella guerra in Ucraina? Cosa…



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